Bulgaria – Montenegro

In a meeting of equal opponents, the home team should not be expected to win

The Bulgarian and Montenegrin national teams were drawn in Group G of the European Championship qualifying round, with Serbia, Hungary and Lithuania. Bookmakers say Serbia and Hungary are the favourites to win the group, while the Baltic team is seen as the least likely candidate for two places in the main tournament. The opponents in Razgrad, whatever the prediction, will be in a position to fight for the top spot in the group, but success will depend on the outcome of their encounters with each other. The hosts' entire squad for the upcoming match is valued at €26.8 million, according to specialist resource transfermarkt. The Montenegrin side are valued at €48.55 million. The opponents are virtually neighbours in the FIFA rankings. Bulgaria is ranked 71st, while Montenegro is 69th. Bookmakers before the first date of the teams in qualification gave a slight advantage to the home team, whose victory can be bet on at odds of 2.56. The Bulgarian national team finished fourth in their group in World Cup qualifying the year before, outscoring only Lithuania among their four opponents. Last year, the Bulgarian team took part in the League of Nations C-League, being in the same company as Georgia, Northern Macedonia and Gibraltar. Despite finishing with a run of two wins, the Bulgarians were unable to get anywhere near the group winner in Kvaratskhelia and company. At the end of 2022, Bulgaria were not particularly diligent in picking opponents in the friendlies, playing Luxembourg and Cyprus. Montenegro had little chance of winning a place in Qatar in 2021. However, the qualifiers produced some unexpected results, including 2-2 draws with the Netherlands and Turkey. The Montenegrins managed to secure a place in one of the most evenly matched groups in the 2022 League of Nations B group along with Romania, Finland and Bosnia and Herzegovina to ensure their place in the League of Nations' second tier. In general, Razgrad will host an evenly matched group of opponents. That said, it's highly unlikely that Bulgaria can carry the burden of playing number one, pushed on by their status as hosts. It's a safe bet that Montenegro will, at the very least, not lose.